Raharjo, Firman Hidayat (2025) ANALISIS FORECASTING DEMAND PENGIRIM OBAT BERDASARKAN FAKTUR KEMBALI STUDI KASUS: PT TERIMA BELLA TRANSINDO (TBT) LOGISTIK (TA.10.25.001). Diploma thesis, UNIVERSITAS LOGISTIK DAN BISNIS INTERNASIONAL.
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Abstract
ABSTRAK Industri farmasi merupakan sektor vital yang memerlukan manajemen rantai pasok yang efisien, termasuk dalam penanganan faktur kembali obat. Fluktuasi faktur kembali dapat memengaruhi biaya operasional dan perencanaan logistik perusahaan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dan memprediksi jumlah faktur kembali obat di PT Tritama Bella Transindo (TBT) Logistik. Data historis faktur kembali obat periode Januari 2024 hingga Desember 2024 digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi pola tren. Dua metode peramalan, yaitu Metode Exponential Smoothing dan Metode Regresi Linier, diterapkan dan dievaluasi akurasinya menggunakan metrik Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), dan Mean Squared Error (MSE). Hasil analisis menunjukkan adanya tren penurunan pada jumlah faktur kembali obat. Perbandingan akurasi menunjukkan bahwa Metode Regresi Linier adalah yang paling optimal dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 8,00%, diikuti oleh Metode Exponential Smoothing dengan MAPE 9,00%. Akurasi peramalan Regresi Linier sebesar 8,00% mengindikasikan kategori "Sangat Baik", sehingga layak direkomendasikan untuk digunakan oleh PT Tritama Bella Transindo dalam perencanaan dan pengambilan keputusan terkait manajemen faktur kembali. Pemanfaatan peramalan ini diharapkan dapat meningkatkan efisiensi operasional dan mengurangi biaya yang terkait dengan penanganan retur. Kata Kunci: Peramalan, Faktur Kembali Obat, Exponential Smoothing, Regresi Linier, Logistik Farmasi. viii Universitas Logistik dan Bisnis Internasional ANALYSIS OF SHIPMENT DRUG RETURN INVOICE FORECASTING: A CASE STUDY AT PT TRITAMA BELLA TRANSINDO (TBT) LOGISTICS By: Firman Hidayat Raharjo ABSTRACT The pharmaceutical industry is a vital sector that demands efficient supply chain management, including the handling of drug return invoices. Fluctuations in return invoices can significantly impact operational costs and logistics planning for companies. This research aims to analyze and predict the number of drug return invoices at PT Tritama Bella Transindo (TBT) Logistics. Historical data of drug return invoices from January 2024 to December 2024 were utilized to identify trend patterns. Two forecasting methods, namely Exponential Smoothing and Linear Regression, were applied and evaluated for their accuracy using metrics such as Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Mean Squared Error (MSE). The analysis results indicate a consistent downward trend in the number of drug return invoices. A comparison of accuracy showed that the Linear Regression Method is the most optimal, with a MAPE value of 8.00%, followed by the Exponential Smoothing Method with a MAPE of 9.00%. The 8.00% forecasting accuracy of Linear Regression falls into the "Very Good" category, making it suitable for recommendation to PT Tritama Bella Transindo for planning and decision-making related to return invoice management. The utilization of this forecasting is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs associated with handling returns. Keywords: Forecasting, Drug Return Invoices, Exponential Smoothing, Linear Regression, Pharmaceutical Logistics. ix
| Item Type: | Thesis (Diploma) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HF Commerce |
| Divisions: | Sekolah Vokasi > Logistik Niaga-EI D4 |
| Depositing User: | PKL SATU SATU |
| Date Deposited: | 22 Jul 2026 08:26 |
| Last Modified: | 22 Jul 2026 08:26 |
| URI: | http://eprints.ulbi.ac.id/id/eprint/4131 |
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